Tuesday, October 31, 2006

D is for desperate

The Edinburgh clubs have been hogging the headlines recently, but they are not the only ones in crisis. (Not that there's a crisis at all, of course. Hibs have pulled themselves a sexy, if untested, new manager in John Collins, probably the most urbane Scottish footballer of the past 2 generations, while Hearts are absolutely on track and there's nothing to worry about. Honest.)

No, the 2 clubs at the foot of the SPL are in it up to their necks, and have decided a change of manager is exactly what's needed to get the journalists to make the trip across the Forth Road Bridge.

Jim Leishman was first to go, sacking himself as manager of Dunfermline after the 4-0 battering by Hibs last week. He's likely to stay on at the club in some capacity but he was still very emotional when breaking the news to the players. An honourable and decent man, Leishman loves the Pars to bits, and used to support them as a boy. More pertinently, he performed miracles for them in the 1980s, as Dunfermline crawled their way up into the top division, their fans shrugging off the patronising remarks from supporters of "bigger" teams as they did so. He will be revered by those same fans for a long time to come, but they probably need a change to turn their season around. Leishman admitted a few weeks ago that the squad was good enough to survive this season - an implicit admission that the management wasn't.

It looked as if Craig Levein, the man who walked out of Hearts as soon as he got wind of a potential takeover by a certain V. Romanov, would be his replacement. But, instead, he's gone to Dundee Utd to replace Craig Brewster.

Dundee Utd somewhat ludicrously suggested on Monday that Brewster's departure was a "mutual and amicable" agreement, despite the fact that just a week ago the manager was insisting he would "never" walk away from the job. Mind you, this is the same club that denied its chairman had ever said anything disparaging about Brewster, after the entire press room had overheard him slagging him off in a phone call.

Be in no doubt, Dundee Utd are cursed. The only question is whether that is because of the chairman, or something more fundamental (although given the chairman is currently battling prostate cancer as well, it's easy to draw simplistic - and tasteless - conclusions).

Eddie Thompson has now appointed his 5th manager in 5 years (he claimed today it was a decision made by the board, but this is a one-man show). The first 4 were all sacked because they weren't delivering on the chairman's expectations - but with each sacking, those expectations have had to be lowered still further. Craig Brewster was tasked with steadying the ship and regaining a little bit of respect for the Tannadice club. Levein has been brought in to avoid relegation, at whatever cost. He's probably the right man for the job but don't expect it to be pretty. Levein's Hearts played some of the ugliest football in the SPL, and nothing he's done since has suggested any change in his "ping-it-tae-the-big-man" philosophy.

But just what is it with the Tangarines anyway? They're another club who were great in the 1980s, and maybe that's enough to condemn them to the karmic pain they are now experiencing. Thompson has put some money in, buying a big squad on some big salaries, but the results have been abysmal. Craig Brewster was in charge for just 28 games, but won just 2 of them. That's beyond poor.

One player, who had a horrible weekend when he was caught in a nasty challenge by Gary Caldwell, sums up their problems. David Fernandez played so well for Livingston that Celtic bought him for £1m. They then discovered he wasn't quite as good as their existing strikers, the player's confidence dipped because he wasn't in the team, and Celtic eventually off-loaded him. Dundee Utd signed him, but he did nothing for them, suggesting that he was washed up as a player. So they released him as well. But then he signed for Kilmarnock and - guess what? - he's looked pretty tidy again. In fact, until he got injured, he was the most dangerous player on the pitch, causing Celtic's defence all sorts of problems. Unfortunately, he is now out for the rest of the season with a knee injury, and Killie are gonna miss him.

Perhaps chastened by the fact it took Dundee Utd only a day to appoint a new manager, Hibs have finally replaced Tony Mowbray. John Collins started his successful playing career at Hibs, and is now hoping history repeats itself as a manager. He's untested, then, but a bold, high-profile appointment for the club. It's a good first job for him as well, but although the squad has plenty of talent, they lack discipline - in both senses. At times they are tactically naive, failing to hold the lead in games they should be winning, and they can be petulant when things don't go their way, picking up too many bookings, as shown on Monday night, when they had Chris Killen sent off and ended up losing 2-1 against Aberdeen. Collins will need to translate the professionalism he displayed as a player into the way his team plays.

Hmm, an entire posting almost done, and barely a mention of Hearts? Shurely Shome Mishtake?

Falkirk 5-1 Dundee Utd
Dunfermline 1-1 Hearts of Mid-Lithuania FC
St Mirren 1-1 Inverness
Rangers 1-1 Motherwell
Kilmarnock 1-2 Celtic
Aberdeen 2-1 Hibernian

Friday, October 27, 2006

Newsflash

Don't you just hate it when that happens? Post a story, then immediately our world of 24/7 connectivity brings a story that has a significant bearing on the story you've just posted. Grr!

Steven Pressley, the Hearts captain, this morning gathered the press to read out an incomprehensible statement, but there is apparently "significant unrest" in the dressing room. Hard to make out what exactly he is so troubled about, but read it for yourself here.

Maybe Elvis is angling for a fortnight's holiday as well?

Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Heart of Mid-Lithuania Football Club

Readers may have noticed a new link appearing on we love fitba's sidebar this week - The Big Feller blog.

As you hopefully have noticed by now, we love fitba is strictly - and deliberately - non-partisan. Patriotic, fair enough, and a passion for passing football, but that's it. We are sick of the established media's bias, and are making a stand. If Celtic, Rangers, or anyone else deserves a good write up, they will get it here. If anyone deserves a kicking, we love fitba will be wearing its boots.

The Big Feller, by contrast, is an unashamed Jambo, but he's done a huge amount of research in an attempt to answer the question everyone wants to know: what on earth is Vladimir Romanov up to? You can read it here.

It takes a very positive view of the man, outlining a long-term plan to steward Hearts into being a self-financing, successful club. After which, he going to buy himself a castle and design a Romanov tartan.*

There may well be a plan in place that will achieve the Hearts of every jambo's dreams. But there are clouds swirling above Tynecastle. The pitch no longer meets requirements for a club aiming for regular European football and the stadium is badly in need of redevelopment. Romanov has talked about building hotels and flats alongside the stadium but it's a business model that's yet to work in the UK, and anyway there isn't much room as the site is cramped and hemmed in by flats already.

The land is worth around £20m as a housing plot, but then Hearts would need to find a new home. The experiment with Murrayfield hasn't worked and there is no obvious site nearby. Their city rivals Hibs have ruled out a groundshare, so this would be a huge financial burden for a club which is already somewhere north of £20m in debt, which is effectively in the form of an overdraft with UKIO. Aside from its ground, Hearts only other significant assets are the training academy at Riccarton (a joint venture with Heriot Watt University) and a shit-hot goalkeeper, say £4m. None of the rest of the squad are currently valued anywhere near as much, and the compensation for Andy Webster won't be more than a few hundred grand. If they are relying on transfer fees to fund their progress, it's a very risky strategy indeed.

Romanov did put a few million into the club as working capital when he bought his first stake, but the club has spent that and is going to make another big loss this season. So they have short term as well as long term debt issues. Belgian club Genk is currently asking FIFA to bar Hearts from making transfers until they receive the balance of their fee for Mersad Besilja, who joined Hearts in January.

Then there's the man himself. Romanov is not the first club owner to fancy himself as a manager, but it never really works, does it? Interfering in transfer policy is always unwise (even if you're as rich as Roman Abramovich). Getting involved in matchday tactics is even worse. He seems unable to separate his role as owner of a football club from the role of running a football team, and it's likely to end in tears.

Fair enough, George Burley might have been a spendthrift who liked a drink, but for fecks sake man... the team was flying.

*possibly.

Monday, October 23, 2006

SPL quarter season round up

With 11 matches played, it's a good time to take stock of the season so far. All the teams in the 12-club SPL have played each other once, so they've all had the chance to size each other up. welovefitba's 1/4 season round up has been delayed by a day, for 2 reasons: Dunfermline and Hibs did not play until Monday night, and we were waiting for Hearts to sack Ivanauskas and appoint another new coach.

So, let's start at the bottom, where Dundee Utd and Dunfermline are locked together on 8 points. Dunfermline have the excuse of a long injury list at the beginning of the season, and no money. They have been hanging onto SPL status by their fingernails for a couple of years now, and it wouldn't be surprising if they drop through the floor at the end of this season. 5 years ago they were a tidy, effective team, and boss Jim Leishman loves the Pars more than life itself, so their fans might still hold out some hope that he can get the club to punch above its weight again. Their keeper Dorus De Vries, performed heroics against Hibs, but they still got thumped 0-4. It will be a long, long season for them.

It's hard to know where Dundee Utd fans can look for inspiration, though. They are a much bigger club, with much stronger resources, but they are in freefall. Craig Brewster is just the latest manager to try and turn things around, but he admitted at the weekend that relegation is now a real possibility, infuriating his chairman, Eddie Thompson. Again. (Thompson was overheard describing his manager in less than complimentary terms after the first game of the season). Brewster is a United fan, but he's drowning not waving, and as he said himself, 2 wins from 27 games tells its own story. That sound you hear is Thompson sharpening his blade.

Motherwell might be only 2 points above the gruesome twosome, but their form has improved markedly from an abject start to the season, and they should continue their recovery. Terry Butcher has proved a tough act to follow, but Maurice Malpas seems to be getting the hang of it now, and Motherwell have some decent players in an admittedly small squad.

Falkirk, on 11 points, have carried on much as they did last season. They are a tidy and compact side, and keep possession well. However, their home form has been very poor, with just one win all season, and they don't score enough goals. They will need to improve on both counts if they are to avoid getting sucked into a relegation dogfight.

St Mirren, 3 points above them, can have no complaints. Gus MacPherson has kept the Division 1 Champions in confident mood, and they should build on a solid start. The truth is that the bottom half of the SPL contains a few teams - yes you, Dundee Utd and Dunfermline - that are no better than those in the division below. Which is how clubs like St Mirren can get promoted, and then compete, with much the same squad. If they go back down this season, welovefitba will eat its (pixellated) hat.

Locked together on 15 points in 6th and 7th places, neatly straddling the top and bottom halves of the table, are Hibernian and Aberdeen, the two clubs who see their natural position as members of the elite, but often find themselves slumming it in less rarefied territory.

Aberdeen manager Jimmy Calderwood was extolling his team's exciting, attacking football at the weekend, with the club hoping more entertainment will get the punters through the turnstiles. Less than 11,000 turned up, however, many fans no doubt struggling to put the usual dour displays out of their mind. It would be a welcome change to see a more attack-minded Aberdeen having a go, but there's no guarantees it will last. A phrase about a leopard and his spots comes to mind.

Hibernian thumped Dunfermline in their Monday night encounter, teeing up the predictable question: imagine how good they'd be if they had a manager? No announcement has been made on Tony Mowbray's replacement yet, but it's no surprise the club are taking their time, because the new man has a tough brief. There's a lot to work with at Hibs, but the team developed a set way of playing under Mowbray - a sort of fluid 4-3-3/4-5-1 - and the fans won't want it to change. So, the new manager will need to improve consistency, while keeping the flair. It's anyone's guess what kind of season they might have.

Inverness Caledonian Thistle are in 5th, Charlie Christie doing an excellent job of maintaining the progress made by the previous manager, er, Craig Brewster. Who walked out on ICT to take up the Tannadice hot seat. Oops. More than any other manager, Christie will dread January, because his job is about keeping his squad together rather than adding to it, and a few of his players are coveted by others.

Jim Jefferies has been doing a fine job at Kilmarnock for so long now that it's easy to get complacent about them. In fact, the bigger clubs still have a complacent attitude towards their trips to Ayrshire, and then get humbled on the park (Hearts being merely the latest). Ultimately, the lack of resources have told in recent seasons, leaving Kilmarnock just short where it mattered. A top 6 club certainly, and there on merit, the next level would be a domestic cup or qualifying for European competition. They have a 3 point advantage over Hibs and Aberdeen as it stands, but these 3 will swap places all season long.

And so to the top 3. Paul le Guen has had a harrowing introduction to Scottish football, his nadir coming in the 1-0 loss to ICT a week ago, when his keeper's every touch was booed by their own fans (they were unhappy that MacGregor, who'd performed heroics in the UEFA cup, had been dropped to the bench). le Guen's favoured No.1 then made an absolute clanger and gifted ICT the 3 points, doing his boss no favours at all. Crucially, of course, Rangers are 10 points off Celtic already, but progress in the UEFA Cup has bought le Guen a bit of time. The SPL title might be beyond them already, but if he can show the team is progressing then the fans might put this season down to "rebuilding" and hope things improve next time around.

Le Guen's other big problem is Hearts. If they finish ahead of Rangers again, it will look less like a blip, and more like a trend, and that kind of decline simply won't be tolerated in the blue half of Glasgow. Hearts are certainly a better team than Rangers right now, and deserve to be ahead of them in the standings. Whether this continues is probably all down to Hearts, and how Romanov plots the remainder of this campaign.

He hasn't sacked Ivanauskas, but he might have broken him - he's been signed off sick for 2 weeks to try and recover his health. You have to feel sympathy for the intense Lithuanian: he's under huge pressure to deliver results, and under constant scrutiny from the media (he does not appear to enjoy the limelight) and yet he does not have the authority to pick the team to get those results. While he's away, Edouard Malofeev (job title: who knows?) takes care of team affairs.

Hearts have a lot in their favour, including a strong squad and some good players. Unfortunately, that same squad is far too big and unbalanced (8 strikers!) and the team selection beggars belief. The Scottish axis of Gordon-Pressley-Hartley is pretty constant, but the others positions are chopped and changed at wil. Romanov has a clear preference for blooding the young Lithuanians, but his selection policy has cost Hearts several points already, and arguably hampered their chances in their brief European campaign. If his plan is to grow Heart of Midlothian football club, results are surely paramount.

The leaders Celtic are still capable of turning in distinctly average performances, but Strachan has been lucky this term that it hasn't cost him. He has been rebuilding the squad since he joined in summer 2005, but it is now starting to gel, and should get more consistent as the team develops. The two centre backs, McManus and Caldwell, are starting to answer their many critics, Caldwell having also noticeably grown up through experience with the Scotland team. Up front, meanwhile, Jan Vennegor of Hesselink is finding Scottish football to his taste, and Kenny Miller, again helped by his heroics in a Scotland shirt, has put his early season goal drought behind him.

8 points clear at the top already, Celtic are looking good to retain their title.

Monday, October 16, 2006

Goodbye Tony Mowbray

While English fans looked forward to the resumption of the Premiership to blot out memories of Steve McLaren's inadequacies, Scottish supporters could be forgiven for wondering how the SPL could possibly match up to the excitement and heroics of the national team. Defeat against Ukraine might have dampened some expectations, but the victory over France will be remembered for a long time.

But the SPL delivered. 2 days of goals, thrills and keeper spills gave fans entertainment on the pitch, while managerial crises gave the media plenty to talk about. As a spectacle, the SPL is good value at the moment.

Match of the weekend was the Edinburgh derby, which was interesting in itself. Hibs and Hearts have the intense rivalry that all good divided cities have, and the derby has always been a massive game for their supporters. But it's no longer just a local tussle, ignored by everyone else. These days, everyone sits up and pays attention. It was the only game on Sunday, the Setanta channel thumbing through their "Sky guide to televising football" again to big up the big game.

Hearts have done a lot to create this hype, the Romanov Revolution building a bubble of expectation around the Tynecastle club. But this time around everyone was talking about their rivals. Hibernian lost their manager 3 days before the derby, and bets were on the leaderless club imploding under the pressure.

In the end, a thrilling match ended 2-2, and in many ways it summed up Hibs under Tony Mowbray. The home side were 2 goals up after 15 minutes, passing their way around the Hearts midfield at will, and threatening a rout. But they couldn't hold on, 2 blunders from their keeper allowing Hearts to take a point from a game they should have lost. Yet again, Hibs had delighted their supporters, but, ultimately, left them disappointed.

Tony Mowbray was a coach at Ipswich who persuaded the Hibernian board to give him his first job in management. He was already knew something of the Scottish game, having been a player at Celtic for 3 seasons in the early 90s, but Hibernian were taking a big gamble.

If his inexperience raised eyebrows, what happened next was simply astonishing. Rather than adopt a reticent, cautious approach with the media, playing it safe and buying himself some time to settle in, Mowbray spoke freely to anyone who would listen, eloquently explaining his footballing philosophy. He liked neat, passing football, players who wanted to get the ball down and beat people with their skill, not their muscle. It played well to the gallery - Hibs has long been a club seduced by pretty passing - but most reacted with bemusement. He wanted to pass the ball? In the SPL? He was making a rod for his own back, surely, and many predicted he'd be sacked by Christmas.

Early results were indifferent, but Hibs stayed focused on the manager's strategy, with the players trying to put their manager's words into action, rather than resort to percentage football. A club that had got used to route 1 tactics and bottom 6 finishes suddenly saw something more. Their manager was trying to build a team to talk about.

The crowds started to flood back. Hibs' average gate had been on the slide for some years, but Mowbray reversed that in a season. They had been lucky to get 10,000 through the gates for the less attractive fixtures (and often got a lot less than that). At the recent Falkirk game, the ground was a 17,000 sell-out. Away, as well, Hibs suddenly became a big fixture, as their fans followed in their thousands to support the team, often out-numbering the home support. Whatever else he had achieved, Mowbray had helped the club find its self belief again.

It wasn't just their own fans falling under the spell. It was generally recognised that Hibs were the most exciting, attractive team in the country. What's more, it was a team made up largely of home-grown talent - the Hibs Kids. With no training academy and laughable facilities, Hibernian had somehow tapped into a rich seam of talent, at just the time it was cutting back on pricey foreign players because of financial problems. 6 of the starting 11 were Scottish and under 24, and they seemed to have no fear. While every other team would go to Celtic to defend in numbers and try and nick something, for example, the Hibs Kids would swagger on to the park and try and outplay the champions.

It didn't always work out, and Hibs were often frustrated by teams they "should" have beaten - like Inverness or Falkirk - who worked out that if they packed the midfield and crashed into tackles, the team from Edinburgh could get petulant and lose their way. The very tactics, in fact, that teams used to reserve for those daunting trips to Celtic. Hibs leaked far too many goals throughout his tenure, and the players often betrayed their lack of experience by failing to protect a lead. But under Mowbray Hibs finished 3rd in his first season and 4th in his second, and reached the semi-final of the Cup both seasons. Petulant they may have been, but he got his team to play for him.

Ultimately, though, Hibernian's lack of resources told. They failed to make any sort of impression in their UEFA Cup and Intertoto adventures, and that second Scottish Cup semi-final was a humiliation, as a desperately under-strength team were spanked 4-0 by Hearts. It was this lack of cash that probably persuaded Mowbray it was time to move on. He may have persuaded his employers to finally invest in their own training facilities, but he had very little money to strengthen the squad, and watched helplessly as Ian Murray, Derek Riordan and Gary Caldwell all walked out the door at the end of their contracts. He lost Garry O'Connor, too, but while Hibernian did receive a transfer fee for him, it was doubtful how much of it Mowbray saw. When Celtic signed Thomas Gravesen in the summer, Mowbray brooded on the fact that his wages alone (reputed to be £40,000 a week) represented his entire squad budget.

At times he seemed exasperated by Scottish football in general, stating that he could never become a career manager north of the border and that he probably had a maximum shelf life of 4 years. A teetotal and footballing obsessive, Mowbray claimed to know nothing about the cultural life of Edinburgh, and didn't form much of an emotional bond with the city.

Yet his departure, after just 28 months, came as a surprise. He had, after all, declined a job offer from Ipswich at the beginning of the summer because he had unfinished business at Hibs. Just a few months later, it seemed, he considered his work to be done. It may have been exasperation at his transfer budget that pushed him away (and an ultra cautious Chairman, Rod Petrie, who put profits before players). Or it may have been the fact that he was overlooked for the Middlesbrough job. His hometown club chose to ignore him and appoint the utterly untested Gareth Southgate instead, and Mowbray might well have wondered if his achievements were really being taken all that seriously in England.

If that is the case, it's an enormous shame, because he DID have work still to do in Edinburgh. He had rebuilt the squad during 2006 as players had departed, strengthening the defence and adding Moroccan flair with Benji and Zemmama. With a decent keeper and a couple of other signings, Hibs could have continued the upward spiral Mowbray often referred to. He often spoke and acted like a man with a 10-year plan for the club, and he had so much goodwill from the fans that they would probably have seen it through with him. Instead, someone else will now try and pick up where he left off.

He is an outstanding coach, who helped develop the resources at his disposal, for the good of both Hibs and, potentially, Scotland. The number of scouts from the English Premiership and across Europe who turned up to watch his team showed that he WAS being taken seriously outside of Scotland. He was adored by the supporters, and always provided good copy for the media. And his team helped bring unpredictability, flair and thrilling play back onto the pitch, pleasing everybody (especially Setanta).

Scottish football will miss him.

Kilmarnock 1-0 Aberdeen
Dundee Utd 1-4
Rangers 0-1 ICT
Falkirk 1-1 St Mirren
Motherwell 2-1 Dunfermline
Hibs 2-2 Hearts

Wednesday, October 11, 2006

Scotland get a dose of reality

So, Scotland's last qualifying match of 2006 ended in disappointment, but 9 points from 4 games is a healthy return and leaves only goal difference between them and France at the top of the table. Making it to Euro 2008 will take still take "a miracle", as the manager Walter Smith said, desperately damping down expectations, but they have put themselves in the mix.

In the end, they were undone by the guile of Andriy Shevchenko. The first of Ukraine's goals came from his clever free kick, the ball ricocheting around the box before being stabbed home by Olexander Kucher. The 2nd he claimed himself, after tumbling from the merest brush from Robbie Nielson. The referee got that one wrong, and also wrongly sent off Steven Pressley, but it was Shevchenko who did the damage.

How Scotland could do with a striker like him. Kenny Miller, with the game still at 1-0, completely missed a free header from 6 yards out. Smith had already sent on Kris Boyd to play alongside Miller, but he achieved very little. Whether he might have chosen Garry O'Connor instead of Boyd to try and force an equaliser is open to debate, but he didn't have the option. O'Connor wasn't on the bench. He wasn't even in Kiev, having failed to arrive back at the team hotel on Sunday evening before the squad flew out on Monday morning.

He hadn't bothered to phone the manager himself to explain his absence - he left that to his manager. By Monday morning, with the story dominating the morning sports reports, he had realised his mistake and issued a grovelling apology (but no explanation), but it was already too late. The squad had left without him.

O'Connor had failed to make the flight for the last away fixture against Lithuania, having complained of a stomach bug and pulled out of the squad. Walter Smith was privately furious at his behaviour and now seriously doubts his commitment, and O'Connor's international career looks over. Scotland's recent recovery has, after all, owed everything to commitment.

Later in the week O'Connor claimed it was personal problems that caused him to withdraw from the squad. He had already claimed that he was homesick, and considering a move away from Locomotiv Moscow in January. His wife has apparently failed to settle in Moscow, and spends most of her time in Scotland. He regretted pulling out of the Scotland squad, he said, but in his world "family came first".

The sadness in this is that he only moved from Hibernian to Moscow in March, in a deal worth £1.6m. He signed a 4-year contract that increased his income 10-fold. Now, he wants to come home. The boy from Port Seton seems unable to cope with the responsibilities of his wealth and career. At the time, he admitted the money was a massive factor in his decision, but also spoke a little about continuing his development in a fast developing league. Garry O'Connor is no world-beater. But still only 23, he has time, but he has potential to improve. Sadly, it seems low down his priority list.

In the past 20 years, Scottish football has become increasingly parochial. Oh, there are a lot of other nationalities in the SPL, but Scottish footballers have travelled less and less well. There are a few high-level exceptions - Gary Naysmith, David Weir and James McFadden at Everton, for example - but not many. There are more young Scottish players with potential coming through the ranks than a few years ago, but unless more of them learn the knack of adapting to the toughest leagues, Scotland won't reach their potential either.

Monday, October 09, 2006

Better and better

welovefitba failed to predict the scoreline on Saturday, so apologies if any of you were looking here for betting advice (very inadvisable). We were halfway there... Scotland obliged with a goal from a Paul Hartley corner, but France blew it by failing to find the net themselves. In the circumstances, we're very happy to be proved wrong.

(Happy, also, to laugh at the Daily Mirror tipster, and any punters he persuaded to part with their money. He recommended backing Scotland to lose against both France and the Ukraine at 7-4 - because it was "a certainty").

If you were being French, you could argue that Scotland rode their luck. But the home side had put themselves in the position to benefit from any good fortune through astute tactics and hard work. The first half was mostly one-way traffic, as France attacked time and time again, but Scotland never lost their shape or composure. Instead, they remained organised and focused, each player performing their role. They knew that if they could frustrate their visitors long enough, an opportunity might present itself to snatch a goal of their own. And that's exactly what happened.

The 5-4-1 formation was not a surprise, but Walter Smith had unexpectedly given James McFadden the opportunity to lead the line. McFadden lacks the physical presence or predatory instinct desirable in a lone striker, and fluffed the one clear chance he got, but he harried and hassled every minute he was on the pitch, helping to stop France grab control of the game. In midfield, Hartley, Ferguson and Fletcher all did well, while the back line never stopped working. And when all that failed, Scotland had Craig Gordon in goal, who looks better and better with each game. Apparently, Arsene Wenger is a fan.

The set-up will be the same in Kiev on Wednesday, although Dailly is suspended and will need to be replaced at right-back. Kenny Miller will return, fresh after his own suspension, and surely McFadden will stay in the team, although pushed to the left of midfield. The only sour note of the weekend was revealed this morning, when Garry O'Connor failed to show up at the team hotel and was dropped from the squad. The Locomotiv Moscow player is unhappy in Russia and wants to return to the UK, with his family apparently unsettled. Scuppering his place in the squad seems an odd way to engineer a move, however, and his conduct is inexcusable. Scotland are on the up, but their revival has been based on discipline. This applies off the pitch as well as on it.

Friday, October 06, 2006

Preview: Scotland v France

The qualifying campaign for Euro 2008 resumes business again on Saturday, with another fixture next week. By next Wednesday night, some nations' hopes of a place in Austria and Switzerland will already be hanging by a thread. But not Scotland's.

Improbably, Saturday's game at Hampden Park is a clash between the 2 leaders of Group B. The expectation is that Scotland won't be at the sharp end of the table in a week's time. But, thanks to the 6 points picked up against the Faroes and Lithuania, they won't be out of the running either. However, any return from the games against France and the Ukraine would be very welcome indeed.

France are priced no better than 4-6 to win on Saturday, an indication of the tough task ahead of Scotland. What chance do they have of causing an upset?

Job no.1 will be defence. Walter Smith is a naturally cautious, pragmatic manager, and he will set Scotland up in a safety first formation, probably 5-3-2. With his assistant Tommy Burns saying a point would be a good return, and Steven Pressley saying they will need to play very deep to negate Thierry Henry's pace, the home team will be looking to camp out in their own half and invite France to try and break them down. There is no pace in Scotland's back line at all, so they cannot afford to let Henry have any space at all. If he breaks through them, he'll be gone. Scotland's defence will be very, very busy.

If this sounds scary, at least the Scottish tradition of quality goal keepers is being kept up by Craig Gordon. By far Hearts' best performer in their dismal European campaign, he is an excellent shot-stopper who has developed the welcome habit of pulling off stunning reflex saves. Much of Scotland's hopes rest on his shoulders.

At the other end of the park (y'know, the centre circle), Walter Smith has been moaning about Kenny Miller's suspension for a while now, and giving few clues about who's going to play instead. Kris Boyd seems the obvious choice, but if Smith doubts his workrate, expect a front 2 of Garry O'Connor and McFadden. Against centre-halfs of the quality of Thuram and Gallas, this pairing looks like struggling, but with Gallas an injury doubt there's a chance Boumsong could replace him. Fingers crossed.

Selection issues in the middle of the park were settled when Nigel Quashie got injured, allowing Barry Ferguson to stroll back into the team. Hopefully, he'll up his pace considerably once the whistle blows, because it's the midfield who'll determine whether Scotland can get a draw or a win. They'll need to cut off the supply line to Henry and whoever plays alongside him, and try and support the attack where possible. Darren Fletcher and Paul Hartley are the shoe-ins for the remaining places, and have shown some potential - Fletcher can graft, and Hartley can pass. Smith will also have options on the bench (notably Hib's Scott Brown) who will look to take opponents on.

For all the emphasis on defence, France will need to be put under pressure at times, if only to relieve the pressure and allow the backline to regain its shape.

It will be a tough ask. But not impossible. welovefitba prediction: 1-1 (Scotland's goal from a Hartley set-piece).

Monday, October 02, 2006

The split

Normally the SPL waits until April before "the split", the quirky arrangement where the league divides into 2 parts and the top six and bottom six play out the season against each other. Last weekend, though, there was a different kind of split on offer, with 3 games each on Saturday and Sunday as Setanta imported more of Sky's marketing blueprint into Scottish football. Celtic, Rangers and Hearts were made to wait until Sunday, in order to maximise the TV audience.

Saturday, then, would have been a good day for Kilmarnock and Hibernian to put some points on the board and try and jump up the table, if only for 24 hours. Both fluffed it, and it was hard to say who had the worse day. On the face of it, a 5-0 drubbing by Motherwell (currently 12 out of 12 in the table) is as bad as it gets, but Kilmarnock boss Jim Jefferies will probably see this as a one-off. Provided, of course, it remains a one-off.

Hibs, on the other hand, managed to make September a month to forget - and when they had already beaten Rangers and put 6 past Gretna in the CIS Cup, this would seem like snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Two successive 1-0 defeats against teams they *should* be beating - Falkirk and St Mirren - has brought despondency to the Leith club's fans. The season just refuses to get going for them.

Oh, and Dunfermline had a bad day too, but when don't they?

On to the Lord's day, and Celtic laboured and laboured and then got the 3 points at Falkirk after an 85th minute goal from Aiden McGeady. If only the 21 year old winger had chosen to represent Scotland rather than Ireland, the entire nation could rejoice, because McGeady is the best player in the league at the moment, and looks to be improving by the game. Regardless of his nationality, if his form continues like this Strachan will be having a word with the Celtic hierachy about getting him signed on a longer contract.

Rangers huffed and puffed too, and eventually beat an unlucky Aberdeen by the same margin, and by another late goal. Through the group stages of the UEFA Cup and no further adrift from the top of the league, Paul le Guen has steadied the ship, and goes into the international break a considerably happier man than a week ago.

Hearts, though, are out of the UEFA Cup, but paradoxically seem to be playing much better than they were. Staying away from Murrayfield seems to help, playing their most expensive player, the Bosnian winger Mirsad Beslija also does them favours, and of course playing Dundee Utd never does any harm.

St Mirren 1-0 Hibernian
ICT 1-0 Dunfermline Athletic
Motherwell 5-0 Kilmarnock
Falkirk 0-1 Celtic
Rangers 1-0 Aberdeen
Hearts 4-0 Dundee Utd