Monday, September 25, 2006

Good week, bad week

One of the oldest cliches in football is that form goes out of the window in derby matches. The theory is that the passion stoked up by local rivalry can help the weaker team overcome its superior neighbours, and its something for the underdog and its supporters to hang on to.

Old Firm encounters, though, tend to go with form, and the current statistics bear this out. Rangers have not won at Parkhead in 16 fixtures, and if any of the blue faithful thought the first Old Firm clash of the season was the day to end this depressing run, they were sorely mistaken. Not only did Rangers lose 2-0, they didn't really make a game of it, and the result is as bad for them as it is good for their old rivals. Some have commented that the latest contest between the 2 Glasgow giants was less aggressive than in recent years, but the truth is that Celtic didn't really need to fight for the win.

Let's start with the happier side of Glasgow. Gordon Strachan could not have wished for a better result. Thomas Gravesen scored his first goal for his new club, which will help him settle in the middle of the Celtic team, and Kenny Miller finally broke his duck after 17 games for Celtic. He was unrestrained in his celebration, too, which won't have made him any more popular with his old employers (he was with Rangers before moving to Wolves). At the back, the defence emerged unscathed and the Caldwell/McManus partnership looks finally to be gelling. With an 8 point gap to Rangers, Celtic can afford to turn their attention back to European matters, with a Champions League fixture this week against FC Copenhagen.

Paul le Guen was hailed as the master technician when he arrived at Ibrox, the man to restore Ranger's dominance in Scottish football. But it is not working out like that, and they now host Molde in the UEFA Cup on Thursday knowing that defeat will cause mention of crisis in the stands. They weren't in the contest on Saturday, and on current form could easily drop many more points before they next meet Celtic in the league. If the gap between them gets much wider, Rangers will be throwing in the towel half way through the season.

Barry Ferguson was somewhat more energetic in the press than on the pitch in the aftermath of the game, conducting a round of interviews to complement the serialisation of his book in The Sun, who hilariously billed it as his autobiography, by Iain King. The theme of the extract was similar to his interviews - he loves Rangers so much, and he knows how much the fans are hurting because he used to stand on the terraces alongside them. He then explained that he was getting back to full match fitness and the forthcoming Scotland matches would be no problem for him.

Frankly, he shouldn't get ahead of himself. While the likelihood is he'll walk straight back into the Scotland team, armband on, that has more to do with Walter Smith's stubborness than his form, because on Saturday Ferguson was once again poor. His opinion was that his team played well but didn't do anything in the final third, neatly passing the blame to the strikers (what a noble captain he is). This was simply untrue. Rangers desperately needed to take the game to Celtic and refuse them time on the ball... instead they were repeatedly cut open in midfield, allowing their opponents to get the ball out to their wingers time and time again. When Jeremy Clement (one of the few le Guen signings to have made a positive impact so far) is fit again, the Rangers manager is going to have an interesting decision to make.

Celtic 2-0 Rangers
Hibs 0-1 Falkirk
Dundee Utd 1-1 Motherwell
Dunfermline 2-1 St Mirren
Kilmarnock 1-1 Inverness CT
Aberdeen 1-3 Hearts

Tuesday, September 19, 2006

The curse of history

15 years ago, Hibernian Football Club nearly went out of business. Bankrupt and desperate, and playing in front of dwindling crowds at a decrepit ground, the only solid offer of new investment on the table was a takeover bid from Wallace Mercer, a prominent Edinburgh businessman. And owner of Hibs' Edinburgh rivals, Heart of Midlothian.

Mercer's negotiating position was strong, and he knew it. He talked openly about pooling the resources of Hibs and Hearts, of allowing the "wee" team to act as a feeder for the other team, perhaps dropping down a division or 2 if it helped them to find their level and blood young talent. Not for the first time, and probably not for the last, the plan was to try and finally create a footballing force in Edinburgh that could compete with the mighty Glaswegian twins.

In the end, the "Hands off Hibs" campaign re-energised the Leith club's support and brought them together, if only in unity of hatred against Hearts. Tom Farmer, another Edinburgh businessman, but one with strong links to the Catholic community (Hibernian Football Club was formed by Irish immigrants), was cojoled into saving the club from extinction. Wallace Mercer reflected before he died that he regretted ever attempting to force an Act of Union on Edinburgh's football clubs, because of the vitriol that came his way from Hibs fans. But at least it had demonstrated that at least some people were passionate about Hibernian… it demonstrated what Hibs were for.

But what are Hibs for now? Apart from a League Cup, improbably won in the midst of that near-death experience, the only silverware has been the Division One trophy Hibernian bagged on the way back into the SPL – but of course any trophy that requires relegation in order to make your club eligible is not something to brag about. Famously, the club has not won the Scottish Cup for 104 years, and has little else to show for its endeavours. This is a club with a proud history – enormously successful in the 1950s, when it was the first club in Britain to compete in the European Cup – but in an era of Old Firm domination at home and the increasing wealth gap between the big 4 leagues and the others in Europe it seems unlikely they can ever reach those heights again. There's a strong tradition, and rich history, but seemingly limited prospects.

This seemed to be the realisation Tony Mowbray, the current Hibernian manager, made last year. In his first season, his team had finished 3rd , and he was recognised as manager of the year. He could have done the same in 2005/6, except that suddenly Hearts had Romanov money to burn, catapulting them out of Hibs reach and into direct competition with the Old Firm. Hibs finished 4 th (again, as much as anyone could reasonably expect, given the huge gap in financial resources between them and the clubs who finished above them) but Mowbray seemed depressed by this, talking about how he had "a natural shelf life" in Scotland and that sooner or later he'd be off to try his luck in England. He is, after all, widely respected for what he has achieved in his 2 years at Easter Road so far, blending a young (and cheap) squad into a team that can really play, and will not be short of offers from covetous chairmen.

And yet… last week, Hibernian Football Club announced their latest financial results, and also that the manager and his assistant had agreed new 12 month rolling contracts. The accounts were simply astonishing – increased revenue, increased operating profit, well-managed debt. Wages at 42% of turnover. More season ticket holders, in a ground that has been steadily redeveloped into one which now hosts International Friendlies and Elton John concerts (not on the same day, obviously). Plans for the new training centre on the way. They even found time to sign a long term deal with the latest talented striker off the Hibs Kids production line, Steven Fletcher.

The turnaround from 15 years ago is simply astonishing. No question that the benign ownership of (now Sir) Tom Farmer has given the club some space to get its affairs in order, but he hasn't thrown money at the club either. As the man ultimately responsible for paying the mortgage, he made it clear to the board that, if the club wanted to stay at Easter Road, it needed to trade at least at break-even point. They are not being bankrolled any longer.

And then Hibs ended their week by beating Rangers at the weekend, and beating them comfortably. It was a performance that put a smile on Mowbray's face, and he spoke afterwards of his belief that this team is getting better and better.

Rangers now hold little fear for the "wee" team from Leith. Last season, they matched Hearts in the league, although were beaten comfortably in the Cup Semi-Final (a match where Hibs relative lack of resources were laid bare). They haven't got as many points off Celtic in the past few seasons, but every match is now a fiercly contested battle.

Mowbray himself isn't getting carried away, and rightly so. There is no way Hibs will win the SPL this season. Or next season, in all probability. They have failed to grasp any of the recent chances of making an impact in the UEFA Cup. But they are growing as a club, and if they keep on growing, anything could become possible.

In an era of mysterious wealthy benefactors throwing money at their clubs, and mass financial irresponsibility, Hibernian deserve applause and recognition for trying to get success the old-fashioned way.

Thursday, September 14, 2006

it's still about Europe

The curse of being a small country with a shit sporting record is that any successes are ludicrously overhyped, with all perspective abandoned in the process. The danger with this is that subsequent setbacks (which are inevitable, if you're a small country with a shitty record)spin the nation back into depression, annoyed that it had been taken in, yet again.

Take, for example, the latest international football rankings, published earlier this week - while England's move up to 4th was greeted by considerable cynicism south of the border (not surprising, when the points system somehow ranks a team that had a terrible World Cup higher than the champions, Italy), Scotland's climb to 34th has been widely celebrated. Yup, we're the 34th best nation in the world at football! Rejoice! Everything is fine!

Of course, these rankings are a meaningless distraction. The co-efficients that judge the relative strength of domestic leagues are not, however, and Scotland risks losing a Champions League place next season unless the 3 clubs in Europe this time around - Celtic, Hearts and Rangers - up their game. Although supporters of the other clubs in Scotland hate to admit it, it will be good for the game if these 3 make some progress. Scotland needs as many routes into Europe as it can get.

Of course, with Hearts gubbed at the first hurdle, only one Scottish team made it to the group stages of the Champions League, and Celtic went to Old Trafford on Wednesday night for the latest "Battle of Britain" clash.

Before the game, lots of ludicrous statements were made about how it would show the gulf in class between Scotland and England. (Similar things were said before Celtic knocked Liverpool and Blackburn out of the UEFA Cup a couple of years ago). I had a conversation with a Man United fan before the game, who rubbished Jan Vennegor of Hesselink, scoffing at his World Cup and saying he was hardly a world-class signing. This was used as an introduction into a wider rubbishing of Celtic's squad.

He, of course, missed the point entirely. World-class strikers in high demand don't cost £3.5m. If JVH had had a storming World Cup, he would have increased his reputation and his value, and therefore become far too expensive for Celtic. They are not shopping in the same market place as Manchester United or any of the top English teams. This is not about a gulf in class, but a gulf in income.

Similarly, some commentators used Wednesday's match as a test of how Celtic would compete in the Premiership, which was equally pointless. Currently, Celtic receive around £2m from the SPL TV deal every season. United receive at least £30m more than that - a decent transfer kitty in anyone's language. Therefore, if Celtic were in the Premiership, they would be competing with the squad they have now, plus a fair injection of extra quality. Probably all of it in defence.

Of course, despite years of trying, Celtic are no closer to joining the Premiership than the Tories are to becoming a major force in Scottish politics again, and so for now they have to put up with the defence they've got. While new signing Thomas Gravesen held his hand up for the mistakes that led to the goals, these individual errors probably won't be repeated too often.

The back four, meanwhile, have looked shaky all season. While Celtic look threatening enough in attack (crap World Cup or not, JVH has started well for them), they'll need to tighten up to progress past the group stage. They'll be hoping the return of Bobo Balde from injury will improve things. As it was, on Wednesday they couldn't keep Saha quiet, and United won the game 3-2.

On Thursday night the UEFA Cup got underway again, and Hearts terrible week continued. After losing their way in the SPL last Saturday and hearing that their owner Vladimir Romanov, is going to be investigated by UEFA for slagging its referees off (the SFA are also unhappy at his allegations that Scottish refs are biased towards the Old Firm), they lost 2-0 to Sparta Prague. At "home". Much like their Murrayfield tie with AEK Athens in their last European game, the scoreline didn't reflect the true horror of the game for the Edinburgh team. When your man of the match is your keeper, and you still lose, you know it's been a bad night.

Rangers turned in a shocking performance, too, but a 0-0 away result in Europe is a decent result. Whether they should struggle so much against a team of the limited resources of Norway's Molde is another matter. Highlights for the Gers were that their debutant keeper got through the game without conceding a goal, and Barry Ferguson returned from injury. Ferguson still has plenty of believers in Govan, despite a career that has been short of real achievement to date; now it's time to see if he can repay their faith.

So, two losses - one a gubbing - and a scoreless draw. Time to be depressed about Scottish football again.

Monday, September 04, 2006

Scotland top of the group

Lithuania away was always going to be a much sterner test than the Faroe Islands at home, and it's easy to imagine other teams coming unstuck there. Unfortunately, it might not be any of the other teams in contention for a qualifying place - Italy will be desperate to avenge their draw against Lithuania in Naples, France look too good, and Ukraine may well have some kind of regional hex over their smaller neighbours. If that's the case, qualification for Euro 2008 will come down to results between Scotland and these 3, which looks ominous, as Scotland is easily the weakest on paper.

But the fact that Scotland are without question in contention for qualificiation, with 6 points from 2 games and 8 goals so far, is as much as could be hoped for at this stage. The team will fly back to Scotland today to universal praise from the media, and they deserve to feel good about themselves. They've given the fans something to smile about, as the old cliche goes, and Scotland seem to have their mojo back.

Walter Smith is a deeply pragmatic manager, and has said that he will adapt the tactics match by match, depending on the opposition. He was true to his word. The 3 striker formation used against the Faroes was ditched for a 5-3-2 formation, which looked a bit worrying... the danger being that Scotland might concede too much possession in midfield and invite Lithuania to attack.

Sure enough, the home team looked lively and, on oaccasion, threatening, and when McFadden went off with a tweaked hamstring, on came a 6th defender. In the Scotland manager's eyes, the best form of defence is even more defence. It was only when forced into another change before half time (when Kris Boyd replaced Nigel Quashie) that Scotland gained some real presence up front. Sure enough, they scored soon after the break.

McFadden and Kenny Miller (who underlined his importance with a goal last night) both like to scuttle after the ball, harassing defenders and making a nuisance of themselves. This can leave no one near the penalty area, looking to seize on any opportunity that comes their way. Kris Boyd doesn't have anything like the work rate of McFadden or Miller, but he does have the cool-headed finishing of a natural predator. Garry O'Connor missed this game with a stomach bug, but he should get more games too.

That said, the fact that an argument can be had about the merits of different strikers in the squad is a huge step forward from the days when Matt Elliott was stuck upfront because there was no one else considered good enough.

Perhaps the only downside for Scotland is that they didn't play Italy this week. Whether it's World Cup complacency or pre-season lethargy, they have looked terrible, and will surely only be better when Scotland come to play them next March.

Sunday, September 03, 2006

Scotland are world-beaters again!

Yup, we've battered the Faroe Islands, so surely that's Scotland on the way to Euro 2008 then?

In fairness, even the Scotland manager, Walter Smith, refused to get carried away with the 6-0 result on Saturday at Celtic Park (Hampden was unavailable because of a Robbie Williams concert, naturally) even though reasons to celebrate the success of the national team have been limited in recent years. There's another game to come on Wednesday against Hearts (sorry, Lithuania) and he knows more than anybody that only after that game can Scotland's start to the qualifying campaign be properly assessed.

Yet there are several reasons for optimism that Scotland can book their place at their first major finals since the 1998 World Cup, despite a Group of Death that includes France, Italy and Ukraine. Some are rational, some less so, but football is often an irrational game.

The first is that Scottish football is surely bouncing back from its lowest point, and the determination never to return to the lows of just a couple of years ago will spur the team on. Berti Vogts may have had a decent record as manager (he won Euro 96 with Germany) but as Scotland boss he was diabolical. Sure, he didn't have exceptional talent to work with, but when you see players asking the bench what the formation is supposed to be during a game, as happened during the World Cup qualifiers, you know there are serious communication problems. Having hired him on a lengthy and expensive contract, the Scottish Football Association dug their heels in and backed their man, long after it was clear he had no idea what he was doing, and Scotland's status and results suffered as a result. You can only hope the SFA have learned their lesson.

At last, there are some decent players coming through. It's too early to talk about a golden generation, and the Under-21s loss to France shows there is some way to go, but the financial crisis in the domestic game had an unexpected benefit - suddenly clubs were forced to play their youth players, because their was no money to bring anyone else in. Most famously, there are the Hibs Kids, 2 of whom - Kenny Miller and Garry O'Connor - scored yesterday. But other clubs, such as Motherwell, have played their part. The side Scotland put out yesterday was young, with Kenny Miller by far the oldest forward at 26.

Training and development is still too poor, and there is no guarantee that the kids will develop into world class players, even if they have the talent. But the potential is there, and the lack of facilities and proper youth coaching is a talking point across the game. The Scotland team has the look of the side that has yet to reach its peak.

Finally, there's the romantic notion that somehow Scotland are destined to appear in Austria and Switzerland in 2 summer's time. Scotland put in a bid to host Euro 2008, which fell down because their bid partner, Ireland, were arguing about whether they should allow football to be played at "Gaelic sports" grounds. Not surprisingly, UEFA ran a mile from that can of worms.

Of course, the bid attracted the usual derision from South of the border, that the only way Scotland could hope to be at Euro 2008 was by qualifting as host. To get there on merit would be a very satisfying repost.

So, there's a long way to go, and there will no doubt be plenty of heart-in-mouth moments over the next year or so. But Scotland have at last given their supporters something to cheer about.